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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

THE WORLD'S GREATEST TRADING INDICATOR

It seems that we now only put value on complexity or what we often label as "advanced". The buzzword today in trading is "indicators, indicators, indicators". Which one is the best?

The mentality. If I can use a remote control to turn on my TV then I should be able to find similar technology as a trading solution. Because a computer can solve anything if it is programmed correctly. Right? So far, not to date.

Remember if there was a way to "figure out the market", there would be no market. Think about it
In other words, instead of trying to solve it, you should approach trading with the correct mindset. How can I get involved, survive, and then ultimately take a profit?

Let me table this concept. Unfortunately it is not my own. However, I am duty bound to pass it on:

Any intelligent fool can make things more complex and harder to solve. It is the genius who is willing to go in the opposite direction. Remember, genius is the ability to make the complex simple.

This is not to take away from gentlemen like George Lane who developed the stochastic. The stochastic measures a closing price and price range over a period of time. Don't get me wrong. Stochastics has a place in trading. But where is that place? After all, it is measuring the relationship between price and time. So what else shows us the relationship between price and time? Answer. A chart.

The novice will use the stochastic to try to figure out the market. The experienced trader will use it as a tool in his decision making process. But how much value should he place on it? Does he use it as the leader in his trading decisions? Answer, no.

But I have digressed.

What is the world's greatest indicator? The leader, is simply price. All other indicators should follow. The application is, as always, price and time. Is this indicator being applied to a suitable timeframe and pricing range? You will not know that answer until you learn to understand how to evaluate the relationship between price and time by using only price as indicator, first and foremost.

Trading is just like any other discipline. The formula for success is four simple steps:

1. Training
2. Practice (this is where you gain experience).
3. Implement.
4. Repeat.

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